|
Written by Ryan
|
|
Tuesday, 09 March 2010 08:28 |
|
 There was a very interesting stat in Frank Seravalli's piece on Scott Hartnell and the Flyers this morning:
'On Dec. 6, Hartnell and Carter both had nine goals. In the 38 games since, Carter has 21 goals and Hartnell has scored just three times.'
That is a disturbing stat. But rather than focus on the negative, I want to take a look at the positive and give Carter a little bit of credit. Not sure how he's done it, but although he hasn't yet overcome my first impressions of his season, he does sit in a tie for 8th in the league with 30 goals.
Frank goes on to average out Carter's production, which he says will land him at 38 goals this season. Which is right, if you subscribe to one school of thought - that a player's pace, at any point in the season, is dependant upon his scoring throughout the entire year. A flat line.
But there's something to be said for getting hot in sports. Everyone believes in it. Or they at least spend a lot of time talking about it to pass the interviews. So I think the trend that Frank points out earlier in the article should be incorporated into his projected totals. If the science of accounting has taught us anything it's that there's different views on what the proper way to count is. Nothing is simple in this world - except the iPhone.
So while I'm not going to project Carter at his goal-a-game pace he's been carrying over the last 8 games and hit him up with a 48 goal season, I think if there is any truth to a player getting hot, and assuming he doesn't cool off and fulfill the bell shape productivity trend that would be so 'Jeff Carter', then we need to give Carter credit where credit's due for getting his game back together, and at least assume he'll continue his scoring pace from the last 38 games, not the first 26.
Hold on tight, because here we go. Over the last 38 games Carter has 21 goals. That's .5526 goals per game. There are 18 games left. That's 10 more goals this season. That's a total of 40!
Frank, you were waaaaaaay off, buddy.
If Carter can score 40 goals this season it will really be a testament to his arrival as one of the game's true stars and not a flake who only scores against the Thrashers and Islanders. The most impressive part, and promising, would be the 31 goals in 56 games, that would see him glance against his 2008-09 scoring rate. The last Flyer to score back-to-back 40 goal seasons was Simon Gagne (yeah I looked this one up). And before him John Leclair. And before him was the Big E before the first lockout with 41 and 44 in only 125 games during his rookie and sophomore seasons. So yeah, shoot for 40 Jeff, and join the elite ranks of the back-to-back 40 club.
Don't let Frank and his calculator hold you back at 38.
Trackback(0)
|
TrackBack URI for this entry
Bloguin is the revolutionary blog network specifically focused on helping bloggers get the most out of their websites. We're currently working on building a large network of online communities and hope to expand our blogging coverage to include a wide range of topics. 
The Bloguin Network allows advertisers to promote their products and services to our ever-growing number of visitors. We offer both site-specific ad placements as well as the ability to run a network-wide campaign. If you're interested in working with Bloguin to meet your advertising needs, please contact us.
The Bloguin Network is always looking to expand. We're specifically looking for blogs in the sports, entertainment, and video games field, but are open to adding any type of quality site. If you're a blogger and interested in joining our network, please fill out our application form.
The Bloguin Login gives you full access to everything our network has to offer. Your name and password will work for each and every one of our sites. Signing up is simple, and will allow you to post in all our forums, create member blogs, and access other cool features! What are you waiting for? Create an Account! 
Hartnell's going to end with 76 - Teemu numbers. That's almost 4 goals a game. Bang-a-rang.